The Depression of 2016 PDF ↠ The Depression PDF \

The Depression of 2016 PDF ↠ The Depression  PDF \ Inmost economists and pundits assume a recovery of the US economy as if it were indisputable factyear government projections forecast a growing economy, declining budget deficits and declining unemployment These predictions are wrong Professional economists view the economy as a single entity with little differentiation and detailThey believe that by feeding money into the economy, either through federal budget deficits for demand, or Federal Reserve action to bolster the capital markets, or both, we can restore the economy to good healthThis notion assumes that the economy is generally healthy and just requires a boost to recover back to normal But the economy is broken in several fundamental waysThis book uses system dynamics to analyze the US economy and shows the interactions among the economy for goods and services, financial markets and international trade What emerges is an economy that approaches low unemployment by relying on financial bubbles to generate income and employment But bubbles burst and lead to severe contractions Rather than analyze what is occurring and working to rectify the economy our government has only moved to create an even bigger bubble each time So far we have experienced three bubbles each ending in a recession in ,andAnd each time the fundamentals of the economy are allowed to worsen while the debt continues to grow Our external debt has moved from atrillion surplus to atrillion deficit, a swing of overtrillion, than the size of any economy in the world except the US The federal budget deficit has rung up similar sized deficits When the recession ofbegan the federal government was running a significant budget deficitYet even money was thrown at the economy and the Federal Reserve initiated a program of Welfare for the financial sector to the tune oftrillion The three past bubbles make up the Super Bubble, so far Today, in , we are embarking on the fourth leg of the bubble We will see an improvement in gross numbers such as GDP and unemployment for about two years But since no action with respect to the trade deficit, tax policy, income and wealth inequality is being taken the fundamental problems persist Government policy is merely hiding reality much like a drug hides symptoms of a person s pain Another analogy is a car leaking oil Providing an infusion of oil will allow it to start and even run for a while But unless the leak is corrected the car will not run for very long In fact running it hard will do permanent damage to the engine That is where we are today And the inevitable conclusion of this analysis is that somewhere betweenandwe will see an even severe recession In all likelihood we will see even spending as a response The other response that is discussed in the media today, European style austerity, is even worse and will throw the economy into an even worse depression What is required is a fundamental understanding of how the economy functions and action to correct the chronic problems The odds of that happening are slim to nil About the TheoryThis book uses Systems Theory to look at Macroeconomics and brings in a new set of concepts developed overyears of studying business, economics, finance, capital markets and other areas The result is an insightful picture of economics that explains our current condition but goes on to make predictions about the near and distant future And the picture is not prettyUnlike most works on economics that at best explain events this work builds a qualitative model that can predict The predictions here are relatively short term allowing for confirmation or refutation in a few years

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